The narrative that Canada’s oil and gas sector is a declining industry is, according to Dane Gregoris, simply false. As the energy director at Enverus Intelligence Research, Gregoris spends his days pulling apart global jurisdictions to find commercial insights. He sees a world where energy demand is not shrinking, but shifting.
“Globally, the industry consumes around 400 billion cubic feet of natural gas every single day,” Gregoris says. He expects that number to climb by another 100 billion over the next few decades. For Canada, the choice is simple: participate in that growth or watch from the sidelines.
Missing the first boat
Canada has a history of letting energy opportunities slip away. While the United States rapidly expanded export capacity in the Gulf Coast, Canada struggled with regulatory hurdles. Only one major project, LNG Canada, is currently in service from that initial wave of proposals.
Gregoris points to regulatory uncertainty and permitting issues as the primary culprits. These delays extended timelines and drove capital providers toward the U.S. market instead.
“Capital moves pretty freely,” Gregoris notes. “If you have an uncertain regulatory path, capital moves quickly.”
The Asia advantage
Despite past failures, Gregoris remains optimistic about a “second wave” of projects. This optimism stems from Western Canada’s unique geographic position. Shipping gas from Kitimat to Japan takes about 10 days, compared to 25 days from the U.S. Gulf Coast.
This proximity cuts shipping costs nearly in half. It provides a significant price benefit for Canadian exports.
“The location of Western Canada is advantageous for customers in Asia,” he says. These customers are looking for stable partners outside of geopolitically unstable regions.
A boon for the economy
The stakes for the Canadian economy are high. Gregoris suggests Canada could jump from exporting two billion cubic feet a day to 20 billion by 2040. This shift would provide a massive increase in government revenue through royalties.
Every molecule of gas extracted pays a revenue-related tax. Doubling these royalties would support essential government services in Alberta and British Columbia. It also creates thousands of jobs to build the necessary infrastructure.
“It would be a huge boon,” Gregoris says.
Pragmatism over premiums
While Canada prides itself on low-carbon regulations, Gregoris offers a reality check on the “green premium.” In the global market, most buyers are not yet willing to pay extra for a lower-carbon molecule. They remain focused on the lowest cost possible.
To succeed, Canada must balance its environmental goals with economic pragmatism. The demand in the developing world is for power, heating, and industrial use. Canada has the resources, specifically in the massive Montney shale, to meet those needs. It just needs the will to get projects over the line.
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Ian Biana writes for the Resource Works Accelerate team and can be reached at [email protected].
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