You decide the $40-billion question
Should Canada back a new pipeline to the coast, or spend the money on heat pumps and electric buses? The answer depends on six assumptions. Set them yourself and see what your own beliefs add up to.
Will coast access improve the price of Canadian oil?
Canadian oil sells at a discount because it is far from ocean shipping. When Trans Mountain opened in 2024, the discount shrank. The whole fiscal case for a new pipeline rests on how much a second line helps, and for how long.
How fast does Asian oil demand fade?
The countries expected to buy this oil are electrifying quickly. Nobody knows the pace. Your answer sets how full the pipeline stays over 30 years.
Does the build stay on budget?
Trans Mountain finished at roughly six times its first estimate. Vancouver’s first electric-bus depot finished at three times its estimate. Cost discipline is a fair worry on every side.
How big should the public stake be?
Ottawa and Alberta plan to hold equity alongside a private operator. A surprise from the model: royalties and taxes arrive whoever owns the pipe, so a smaller stake can mean a better public return.
What is a tonne of avoided carbon worth?
Market carbon prices sit near $95 a tonne. Ottawa’s own guidance for policy analysis uses about $294. Your answer decides how much credit the heat pumps and buses earn for cutting emissions.
Where do the heat pumps go?
Against oil heating, a heat pump saves a family around $2,500 a year. Against natural gas, often almost nothing. Targeting decides the average saving per home.
