As the world enters 2026, the global energy chessboard has been upended by a series of shocks that would have seemed like fever dreams only years ago. From the “shocking extraction” of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela to the rise of Mark Carney as Canada’s prime minister, the geopolitical landscape is now defined by a raw, transactional realism that ignores diplomatic niceties in favour of physics and molecules.
In a recent episode of the Power Struggle podcast, the anonymous analyst known as Doomberg joined host Stewart Muir to dissect this new era. For Doomberg, whose work is defined by a “clear eyed analysis” of oil and gas markets and an obsession with thermodynamics, the current state of affairs is a predictable, if dangerous, result of the West forgetting the basic rules of how the world actually works.
The Venezuelan wild card
The most jarring shift has been the Trump administration’s aggressive move into South America. The capture of Maduro by U.S. forces has fundamentally altered the heavy crude market, a sector where Canada has long held a dominant position. While many in Ottawa worry that a revitalized Venezuelan oil sector could threaten Alberta’s bitumen exports, Doomberg remains skeptical of a quick turnaround in Caracas.
“It’s gonna take an awful long time for Venezuela to add a quarter million barrels a day increments to its current supply,” he noted, pointing out that Venezuela remains a “broken country”. Instead, he sees the Venezuelan situation as a catalyst for Canadian infrastructure. The threat of U.S. dominance in the south will likely “urgently approve” new pipeline construction in the north, steamrolling the objections of environmentalists who have long stalled Canadian energy independence.
The Carney paradox
In Canada, the political story is dominated by Prime Minister Mark Carney. Doomberg, who counts predicting Carney’s rise as his “best call” in recent memory, views the former Bank of England governor through a historical lens. He suggests Carney is currently in his “Nixon going to China” moment.
“Carney has to be the one to stare down the climate change movement,” Doomberg argued. The logic is simple: Canada is a “top five global energy producer” that has spent years apologizing for its success. “The average Canadian has been convinced that their nation’s natural bounty is a sin,” Doomberg said, “in aggregate, more so than it is a precious foundation upon which to increase the standards of living”.
He posits that with competent management, the “mean and the median net worth of an average Canadian citizen should be much higher”. In Doomberg’s view, there is no physical reason Canada cannot be “Norway,” yet the country remains “beholden to one customer” and paralyzed by a “Church of Carbon” narrative that ignores the second law of thermodynamics.
The physics of the standard of living
At the heart of the Doomberg philosophy is a blunt assessment of human progress: “Energy is about moving mass”. He rejects the “lies” of the environmental movement that suggest a green transition can happen without trade-offs.
“Your standard of living is literally defined by how much energy you get to waste,” he stated, explaining that imposing order on a chaotic environment—like heating a home or building a skyscraper—requires the consumption of energy and the release of heat. To Doomberg, the push for intermittent renewables like wind and solar without a baseload of nuclear or natural gas is a fantasy that risks degrading the Western standard of living while “China will happily and greedily step in and emit for you”.
He is particularly scathing toward “tech-bro” solutions that promise a magic bullet. “Fusion is just a giant boondoggle fake—a fake solution to problems that don’t actually exist,” he told Muir. “I hate fusion”. Instead, he advocates for an “ideal grid” consisting of baseload nuclear, dispatchable hydro, and natural gas—the “molecules” that actually keep the lights on.
The “Donroe Doctrine” and the law of the jungle
As Donald Trump marks the first anniversary of his second term, his “transactional” approach to the world has created a “dangerous phase” for international law. Doomberg describes Trump as “nectar from the gods” for content creators but a “walking giant headline risk” for policymakers.
The administration’s revival of 19th-century concepts like the Monroe Doctrine—now being dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine” in some circles—suggests a world where “might is right” and “the law of the jungle” prevails. This poses a unique threat to Canada. If the U.S. begins to treat the Americas as its “private U.S. gas station,” Canada risks becoming a mere asset to be integrated at the “whim of the president”.
Perhaps most concerning is the internal decay of the American political system. Doomberg warns that “the US has started arresting former presidents,” a serious line to cross in any democracy. “Once you start arresting former presidents, it’s really hard to stop,” he noted, “because retribution is irresistible”. This cycle of vengeance suggests a future where incumbents refuse to leave office for fear of imprisonment, further destabilizing the world’s largest economy.
A hedge against the south
So, what is a northern middle power to do? Doomberg’s advice to the Carney government is one of cold-blooded diversification. While the U.S. and Canada are “natural partners” with massive cultural and business overlap, it is “never good to put all your eggs in one basket”.
“China is a very large basket,” Doomberg suggested, “and diversifying a few eggs in that direction is probably prudent”. By building the infrastructure to reach Asian markets—the “pipelines that give access to the world’s growth markets”—Canada can hedge against the unpredictability of a Washington obsessed with “Hulkamania”-style American exceptionalism.
In the end, Doomberg’s message is one of cautious optimism for Canada, provided it can overcome its own cultural inhibitions. “Canada does a lot well,” he concluded, but its future depends on whether it chooses to embrace its “natural bounty” or continue making “sacrifices to the carbon gods” while the rest of the world moves on. For an audience that follows the physics of the global chessboard, the choice is as clear as the second law of thermodynamics.
Resource Works News
